Desisyon ng Lakers na Pakawalan si Caruso ay Hindi Tungkol sa Pera—Isang Pagkakamali sa Pagtatasa, Ayon sa Analyst

by:WindyCityAlgo•6 araw ang nakalipas
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Desisyon ng Lakers na Pakawalan si Caruso ay Hindi Tungkol sa Pera—Isang Pagkakamali sa Pagtatasa, Ayon sa Analyst

Ang Tanong na $37 Milyon

Noong pumirma si Alex Caruso sa Chicago ng 4 taon/$37 milyon noong 2021, nagalit ang mga fans ng Lakers. Hindi dahil sobra ang bayad—kundi dahil maaaring ito ay itugma ng LA para sa halos parehong tax hit na kanilang tinanggap para kina Kendrick Nunn at Talen Horton-Tucker. Gaya ng nabanggit ni BR’s Eric Pincus: “Gumastos sila nang mas malaki kina THT, Nunn at Beverley… Ito ay purong hindi pagpapahalaga kay Caruso.”

Hindi Nagsisinungaling ang Datos

Tingnan natin ang mga numero pagkatapos ng panahon ni Caruso (2021-2023):

  • Defensive rating: Bumagsak ang Lakers mula ika-6 hanggang ika-22
  • Backcourt steals: Bumababa ng 1.7 bawat laro
  • Net rating kasama si LeBron: +8.3 kasama si Caruso vs +4.1 nang wala siya

Sumigaw ang advanced metrics na “panatilihin siya,” ngunit nakita ni GM Rob Pelinka ang expendable role player energy kung saan nakita ng analytics ang elite connective tissue.

Ang Kamalian sa Pagpapalit

Tumaya ang front office ng LA sa mga alternatibong ito:

  1. THT ($32M/3yrs): -0.2 BPM noong nakaraang season
  2. Patrick Beverley: Na-trade pagkatapos ng 45 games
  3. Kendrick Nunn: Namiss ang buong unang season

Samantala, naging All-Defensive selection si Caruso habang kumikita ng mas mababa kaysa sa alinman sa kanila taun-taon.

Isang Pattern ng Maling Pagtatasa

Ito ay akma sa kamakailang trend ng Lakers na maling basahin ang impact ng role player:

  • Pagpapakawala kay Julius Randle (2018)
  • Pag-trade kay Ivica Zubac para kay Mike Muscala (2019) nagiging karaniwan sa isang mundo kung saan itinuturing ng mga front office ang mga defensive specialist bilang replaceable parts.
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WindyCityAlgo

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Mainit na komento (3)

นักวิเคราะห์บอลสุดปัง
นักวิเคราะห์บอลสุดปังนักวิเคราะห์บอลสุดปัง
5 araw ang nakalipas

ข้อมูลไม่โกหก แต่คนดูข้อมูลสิ!

Lakers ยอมเสีย Caruso ให้ Bulls แบบไม่คิดมาก ทั้งที่ตัวเลขมันตะโกนว่า “เก็บเขาไว้”!

  • Rating การป้องกันตกลงจากอันดับ 6 ไปอยู่ที่ 22
  • เกมกับ LeBron ได้แต้มเฉลี่ย +8.3 ตอนมีเขา เทียบกับ +4.1 ตอนไม่มี

ที่แย่กว่าคือทางเลือกแทนที่

เลือกจ่ายเงินให้ THT, Beverley กับ Nunn ที่ผลงานแย่กว่าแทน… เหมือนทิ้งทองไปกองแล้วไปเก็บเหรียญแดงมาแทนอะ!

สรุป: นี่ไม่ใช่เรื่องเงิน แต่เป็นการ”ประเมินค่าผิด”แบบสุดๆ จริงๆ นะ!

พวกคุณคิดยังไงครับ? เชียร์ Lakers แล้วปวดใจหรือเปล่า? 😂

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WindyCityAlgo
WindyCityAlgoWindyCityAlgo
1 araw ang nakalipas

Math Over Mystique

The Lakers front office must be using abacuses instead of Python models. How else do you explain choosing THT (-0.2 BPM!) over an All-Defensive guard who made LeBron 2x more effective?

Tax Logic Fail

Same luxury tax hit for keeping Caruso… but they’d rather pay Beverley to leave after 45 games? Even my regression models can’t predict this level of front office chaos.

[visualize this travesty] Defensive rating dropping from 6th → 22nd post-Caruso looks like my stock portfolio during COVID. But hey, at least we got that legendary Mike Muscala trade, right?

Who needs advanced metrics when you have ‘vibes’? #AnalyticsNightmare

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DatenHermann
DatenHermannDatenHermann
3 araw ang nakalipas

Zahlen lügen nie, aber die Lakers schon!

Die Lakers haben Caruso gehen lassen und stattdessen THT & Co. behalten? Ein klassischer Fall von “Wir vertrauen unseren Augen mehr als den Daten”. Die Defensiv-Statistiken sind eindeutig: Ohne Caruso ist die Mannschaft von Platz 6 auf 22 abgerutscht – das ist kein Zufall, sondern Mathe!

Der teuerste Fehler seit Muscala

37 Millionen für Caruso waren zu viel? Aber 32 Millionen für THT mit seinem -0.2 BPM sind okay? Da hat jemand im Management wohl die Excel-Tabellen falsch eingefärbt. Und jetzt ist Caruso All-Defensive – wer hätte das gedacht? Außer jeder mit einem Taschenrechner.

Fans, was sagt ihr? Sollen wir Rob Pelinka einen Statistik-Kurs schenken? 🧮😂

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