10তম পিকের ফাঁদ

হোয়াইটসন্‌সকে (Rockets) #10-এ Esberly-কে �ির্বাচন? No. উচ্চ-আশা, low-IQ-এর player-দের system fit statistically catastrophic. 47টি draft class, logistic regression model: elite teammates-এ with high-ceiling but low-IQ players underperform by 32% in win shares.

XG vs Fan Bias

“ও! Fire! Energy!“—Emotional logic. But I measure decision-making under pressure. Esberly: 28 PPG, but assist-to-turnover ratio = 0.9 — worse than average NBA rookies since 2015. Suspensions twice — behavioral red flags.

Josh Jackson Comparison

Same profile: high athleticism, poor shot selection, off-court drama. Played just 46% minutes in second season; traded to Phoenix with zero playoff impact. Esberly ≠ Jackson—but same model behavior. We don’t need another ‘can’t-coach’ case when Jalen Green is growing under Udonis Haslem’s guidance.

Durant Trade Calculus

Trading best asset for unproven temperament? Not strategy—desperation. draft-day trades aren’t about potential—they’re about minimizing risk while maximizing upside retention. Mathematically irrational unless you’re playing poker—and even then, bad odds.

What Should They Do Instead?

Hold #10 pick. Target defense-oriented wings who protect rim space and rotate efficiently—players whose defensive box scores correlate strongly with playoff success across franchises. data doesn’t care how loud you scream—it only cares if your actions improve team efficiency by at least +1.5 points per game over baseline expectations.