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When xG Meets Fan Bias: Why Data, Not Intuition, Decides the Game
As a data巫师 from East London, I’ve watched clubs cling to gut feelings while xG values silently rewrite the rules. This isn’t about passion—it’s about posterior probabilities, Bayes theorem, and the cold math that exposes flimsy narratives. I break down 107–98 sequences in Premier League and NBA games where ‘faith’ meets regression. No religion here—just regression lines. The truth? It’s not what you see—it’s what the model predicts.
Thunder Zone
bayesian sports analytics
xg vs fan bias
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3 weeks ago
When xG Meets Fan Bias: How the Pacers’ Playoff Dreams Were Calculated (and Why They Still Miss Turner)
As a data wizard from East London, I’ve watched the Pacers’ obsession with Turner fade under luxury tax math. This isn’t folklore—it’s regression. When his 30M contract collided with 16M in tax penalties, the numbers didn’t lie. The Bayes model saw it before the fans did. Now, with new data, opportunity emerges: not instinct, but algorithm. This is how analytics breaks sports玄学.
Lakers Hub
nba analytics
xg vs fan bias
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1 month ago
When xG Meets Fan Bias: How Data Exposed the NBA’s Illogical Trade Myths
As a data巫师 from East London, I used Bayesian models to dismantle the fan-driven myths around NBA trades. This isn’t about gut feelings—it’s about expected goals (xG), rebound efficiency, and salary-to-performance ratios that no traditional scout would dare touch. Let the numbers speak.
Spurs Hub
nba analytics
xg vs fan bias
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1 month ago