The Algorithm Never Lies (Except When It Does)

When the Houston Rockets’ front office picks up my calls—which statistically happens 12.7% more often than they’d publicly admit—they’re getting Bayesian probability models wrapped in British sarcasm. Today’s projection: ranking their trade chips by objective value, not fan sentiment.

#1: Amen Thompson - The Bet on Athleticism

His 94th percentile defensive potential and 7-foot wingspan make statisticians drool. But until his 28.3% 3-point shooting improves, we’re essentially valuing a Ferrari with bicycle wheels.

#2: Alperen Şengün - The Turkish Delight

19.3 PER at age 21? Textbook case of ‘advanced stats darling’. Though if I hear ‘poor man’s Jokić’ one more time, I might recalculate his value downward purely out of spite.

The Contenders:

• Jabari Smith Jr.: Elite stretch-four prototype (when he remembers how to shoot)
• Tari Eason: Human wrecking ball with a sneaky-good 62% TS%
• Jalen Green: Still living off that ‘next Kobe’ hype like an expired coupon

Fun fact: Our models suggest Dillon Brooks’ trade value inversely correlates with his technical foul count (r = -0.89).

The Wild Card: Cam Whitmore

The league’s most efficient bench scorer who somehow plays like he’s late for a dental appointment every possession.

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