The Numbers Don’t Lie

When Oklahoma City unleashed their full switch defense in Game 4’s fourth quarter, my tracking system lit up like a Black Sabbath light show. The Pacers’ assist percentage plummeted from 68% to 41% - exactly the statistical cliff our models predicted when facing teams built on motion offense.

Key Metric: Haliburton/Nembhard/Nesmith combined for just 0.78 points per isolation play (league average: 0.92). Meanwhile, SGA and Jalen Williams torched single coverage for 1.24 PPP. That’s not basketball - that’s arithmetic.

Why Switching Works Against Passing Teams

1. Eliminates Screens: Indiana ran 23 fewer pick-and-rolls in Game 5 than their playoff average
2. Forces Mismatches: My defensive matchup chart shows Nembhard defending SGA for 14 possessions - Thunder scored on 11 of them
3. Psychological Warfare: After three quarters of switched coverage, even All-Star Tyrese Haliburton started hesitating on drives (see his 18% drop in paint attempts)

The Beautiful Simplicity of Having Two Closers

While analysts obsess over “ball movement,” Mark Daigneault made this series elementary:

• Don’t help off shooters
• Switch everything
• Let your stars cook

It’s the same principle as my old Chicago pub chess club - sometimes you don’t need fancy openings when you’ve got better pieces.

What Game 6 Needs to Watch

The Pacers will counter with more:

• Baseline out-of-bounds plays (their only effective sets)
• Early offensive foul drawing (watch for Myles Turner flops)
• Zone looks (which SGA shredded for 1.4 PPP this season)

But with OKC’s defense allowing just 98.3 points per 100 possessions in this configuration? Bring on the champagne.

Data Note: All stats include postseason tracking through June 15, filtered for clutch minutes (last 5 mins, score within 5)