10वां चयन काम करे?

डेटा झूठे नहीं बोलता

मुझे 8 सालों से NBA ड्राफ्ट परिणामों पर प्रवचन मॉडल बनाने हुए हैं — इसलिए, 200 मिनटों में ही प्रदर्शन करने वाले किसी प्लेयर को मुझे पसंद होता है। सीड्रिक कॉवर्ड: 6’6” , 7’2” स्प्रेड, पकड़-जैसे हाथ।

उसका ‘ट्रुशॉट’ (55.7%) —आखिरकार, +9.3 net rating?—इससे समझता हूँ: ‘यह प्रभाव’।

D-III से D-I: प्रतिकष्टता का मॉडल

coward ne power-conference school me shuruat nahi ki — Willamette University (D-III) se shuru kiya, jahan usne freshman ke roop me avg. 19.4 points aur 12 rebounds liye।

Phir Eastern Washington (D-I), phir Washington State — har move ke saath uska offensive role badha।

Par yeh point hai: season ke aakhri mahine me shoulder injury ne use sirf chhahat games khelne diye tha.

Lekin un chhahat games me? Usne dribble se score kia, catch-and-shoots par threes mara, multiple positions par defend kiya — aur efficiency to ekdum elite rahi.

Kya Woh Ball Handle Kar Sakti Hai?

Zyada tar scouts ko lagta hai wo pure three-and-D wing hai — jo teams ko spacing aur switching mein pasand aata hai। Haan: defensive ratings low hain (top 14% players), lekin yaad rakhein: wo elite competition ke khilaf limited minutes khel raha tha.

Asli sawal ball-handling ka depth hai: college me sirf ~8% possessions isolation ya pick-and-roll pe aaye the — lekin jab bhi handle kia to poise dikhai diya.

Yehi wajah hai ki data humein patterns dikhata hai jo aankhon se nahi dekha ja sakta। Uske turnover rate sirf ek per game tha despite high usage (22%) — ye bataata hai ki confidence fake nahi hai; isme repetition hui hui hai levels across.

Kyon Yeh Sirf Umeed Nahi Hai?

Uski career arc dekhein: D-III → D-I → Power Conference → Injury-ridden final year → phir bhi top-tier metrics produce karein。

Yeh luck nahi hai — yeh har layer development mein built resilience hoti hai। Mere models ke hisab se similar trajectories late peak karti hain kyunki early roles mein rush nahi kiya gaya hota。

Agar aap top ten me draft kar rahe ho value aur floor-ceiling potential ke liye? Coward zyada boxes check karta hai jis player ko top five picks se bhi upar draft kiya gaya ho。

Anant Verdict: Growth Par Vishaas Karne Par High Ceiling

The model says yes—with caveats:

• Yes if you believe in growth mindset coaching;
• Yes if you value athletic upside over polished polish;
• Yes if you’re okay betting on effort over instinct. But no if you want immediate ready-made starters. Still… that rare blend of size, shooting touch, and tenacity makes him worth drafting somewhere between #8–#13—especially if your team values long-term development over short-term fixes.