The 76ers’ Salary Gambit: Why They’re Betting on Injury-Prone Stars Despite Tax Hell

The Math of Madness

I’ve spent years building predictive models for ESPN and Premier League clubs. When Marc Stein dropped the news that the Philadelphia 76ers plan to retain Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Haliburton (wait—no, Tyrese Maxey) for another year despite a projected near-$200 million payroll? My calculator paused mid-calculation.

Let’s be clear: they’ve only played together in 15 games this season — seven wins, eight losses. That’s less than two full NBA weeks of coexistence. And yet… they’re still betting everything on chemistry.

This isn’t basketball strategy. This is statistical theater.

The $11M Contract Trap

Here’s the kicker: keeping their 2024 3rd pick adds $11.1 million to next season’s salary total — pushing them into or beyond the second luxury tax tier. For context, that’s like paying £8 million in UK taxes for a team that barely exists on court.

Yet here we are: three All-Stars with major injury histories (Embiid: 19 games; George: 41; Maxey: 52), now asked to carry a championship burden while their payroll threatens to bankrupt their cap flexibility.

It feels less like planning and more like emotional arbitration — which brings me back to my core belief: you can’t predict outcomes from heartbreaks.

Bayes vs. Bleeding Hearts

In my work at Imperial College and with betting algorithms, I use Bayes’ theorem not as a tool of faith but as a way to quantify uncertainty — especially when data is sparse.

So let’s apply it here:

• Prior belief: A healthy three-man lineup has an X% chance of winning it all.
• New evidence: They’ve played together in only 15 games (and lost more than half).
• Posterior probability? It shrinks dramatically unless new data arrives.

But instead of updating beliefs based on reality… Philly is doubling down on hope. That’s not analytics — that’s mythology disguised as strategy.

The Real Cost Isn’t Money—It’s Trust

What worries me most isn’t the tax bill (though yes, that’ll hurt). It’s what this says about organizational logic:

• Do they believe in player development?
• Or do they simply want one last shot before selling off assets?
• Are they treating NBA talent like vintage wine? Wait too long and it spoils?

If so, then this move isn’t about winning championships—it’s about preserving narrative continuity for fans who still believe in ‘the core.’

I respect fandom. But I don’t trust wishful thinking as a win condition.

Final Thought: Data Doesn’t Lie—But People Do

The numbers scream caution: low health rate + high payroll = unsustainable risk profile. Yet management chooses optimism over probability. That might make for great press releases—but terrible models.

If you’re watching this team closely next season… don’t just ask ‘Can they win?’ Ask instead: ‘Are we measuring success by results—or by regret?’ The answer might tell you more than any box score ever could.