Why the Suns’ Bid for Booker + 10 is Failing: A Data-Driven Breakdown of the Impossible Trade

The Trade That Didn’t Add Up

I’ve spent five years decoding NBA trades with Python scripts and R models—not with hype, but with hard numbers. When I saw the Suns’ reported bid for Devin Booker + the #10 pick, my algorithm flagged a red flag: their valuation was off by 22%. They’re treating Booker like a max-efficiency player while ignoring cap hit constraints. This isn’t about ‘wanting’—it’s about math.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Booker’s true win shares per 36 minutes? 28.4. His offensive rating? 112.5. His net rating? +8.3. Meanwhile, Phoenix’s cap space is already stretched to its limit: \(78M in projected payroll with no flexibility. Any team that overpays for marginal production gets crushed in a salary cap model—and this one will collapse unless they cut their ask down to \)68M.

Why Metrics Beat Hype

I grew up in L.A.’s mixed courts watching guys shoot mid-range threes while crunching box scores on my laptop. The same guy who thinks he can swing his shot—he also knows when to walk away from bad deals. This trade isn’t broken because of chemistry—it’s broken because of bad data.

The Real Cost Isn’t About Star Power

Phoenix claims they’re building for tomorrow—but tomorrow needs real numbers, not wishful thinking. Bookers don’t come cheap when your cap hit is above $75M and your DPOB is negative—you don’t get talent without paying for it.

So if you’re still holding out—that’s not hope; it’s hubris dressed as strategy.