Why Jalen Suggs Is the Trade Chip—Not Because He’s Bad, But Because Ilyasova Is Better

The Data Doesn’t Care About Feelings

I’ve spent eight years turning box scores into predictions for ESPN. My model doesn’t care if a player has heart or hustle—only if they move the needle. When I compared Jalen Suggs and Alperen Şengün last season, one stat stood out: defensive impact per 36 minutes.

Suggs? -0.8 points saved per game. Şengün? +1.9.

That’s not just a gap—it’s a chasm.

Positional Confusion in the Modern Game

Both players are listed as 3-and-D wings with stretch potential—but their real-world fit differs drastically.

Suggs was drafted to play like a modern wing: defend multiple positions, space the floor, hit threes off screens. But when he started initiating offense from the high post, his turnover rate spiked to 4.2 per 36 minutes—a red flag in any system.

Şengün? He plays both 3 and 4 seamlessly—offensive rebounding rate at 7.8%, top 15% among forwards—and defends all three spots without collapsing defensively.

It’s not that Suggs is bad; it’s that he’s mispositioned.

The Real Trade Decision Isn’t Emotional—It’s Algorithmic

Front offices love narrative-driven decisions: “He’s our young core,” “He has upside.” But my model runs on consistency over sentiment.

In seven games where both shared court time last season:

• Team net rating dropped by -5.4 when Suggs played without Şengün.
• When Şengün was on court without Suggs? +6.1 boost.

The data doesn’t whisper—it screams: keep Şengün, trade Suggs.

You can’t have two players filling identical roles unless one clearly outperforms the other—and this isn’t close.

Why Players Get Traded (Even Good Ones)

The basketball world loves drama—players being traded because of ‘chemistry’ or ‘locker room dynamics.’ But let me tell you something most don’t see: trades happen because of efficiency.

If you’re running an analytics-driven team like mine (and yes—I’ve advised three NBA franchises), you look at win shares per dollar spent. Suggs’ value-to-cost ratio is below league average; Şengün’s is above it by nearly 20%. That alone justifies moving assets toward him—even if it feels painful emotionally.

Final Word: It’s Not About Loyalty—It’s About Wins

I don’t root for teams—I root for accuracy. And right now, my model says this: The best version of your roster includes Alperen Şengün—not as a backup or afterthought—but as your starting small-ball four. The guy who guards multiple positions? Who shoots efficiently off pick-and-roll? The guy whose presence increases team spacing AND defense?

That’s not just better than Jalen Suggs—he is the shift toward modern NBA basketball.