Why Do 90% of Basketball Predictions Get It Wrong? The Hidden Variables in Yegor Demin’s Game

I didn’t set out to write about another ‘can’t-miss’ prospect.

The Illusion of Scoring

Most scouts see height, shooting percentage, and draft position as the entire story. But when you isolate variables—if you look past the box score—you find something else. Yegor Demin doesn’t shoot well because he’s hot-sharp; he shoots well because his mechanics are calibrated to millisecond precision. His release is smooth, his follow-through silent—a trait no algorithm can quantify until it watches him move.

The Physics of Vision

At 206cm with a wingspan exceeding his height, Demin operates in passing lanes like a chessmaster on hardwood. He sees rotations others miss: the diagonal cut between weak defenders, the hesitation before the help arrives. His court vision isn’t taught—it’s innate. He doesn’t force passes—he lets them happen.

The Quiet Weakness

His turnover rate? Low. His body mass? Underweight. When contact comes—even soft—he loses leverage. That’s not weakness; it’s geometry mismatched to modern defense systems designed for guards under 195cm. He doesn’t need to be strong—he needs to be precise.

Why Process Over Outcome

We measure outcomes because they’re measurable. But Demin’s value lives where metrics end—in rhythm, timing, spatial awareness. He may not shoot well yet—but if we train him through structure—not just shots—we might find what every stat misses: a player who thinks two steps ahead while standing still.

The Unmeasured Edge

The best players aren’t those who score most—they’re those who make others score more by making space visible before it opens. Demin is that player. Not tomorrow.—today.