When AI Sees MVP: Why Embiid’s 2023 Award Wasn’t ‘Watered Down’

The Myth of the ‘Watered’ MVP

They said it after the trophy landed: “Embiid’s MVP? That’s not real.” But let’s pause. If you’re judging a season by a single award, you’ve already lost the game.

I ran the model again last night—same inputs, same weights. The output? Embiid didn’t just make the case for MVP. He overwhelmed it.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (But They Do Whisper)

In 2022–23, Joel Embiid averaged 33.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 4.2 APG, with 2.7 BPG and a TS% of 65.5—yes, that’s higher than his peak years.

Compare that to Nikola Jokić: 24.5 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 9.8 APG, 70.1 TS%.

Jokić had better efficiency—no argument there—but Embiid led in scoring volume, defensive disruption (blocks), and true shooting on a higher usage rate (USG%: 37 vs 27%).

EPM & Context: Where Logic Meets Reality

The advanced stats tell the full story:

• Embiid’s EPM: +7.3
• Jokić’s EPM: +7.6

A difference of just 0.3? In sports analytics, that’s like saying two quantum states are identical.

But look at context:

• Denver went 53–29 (West #1)
• Philadelphia went 54–28 (East #3)

Same conference dominance level—even with injuries piling up late.

And remember—the Best NBA Player Award is not about being second-best in every category. It’s about being the defining force when your team needs you most. The model doesn’t care about narrative arcs or fan loyalty. The model cares about impact under pressure. The model says Emby did more with less consistency than any big man since Shaq in ‘96. So no—this wasn’t “watering down.” The algorithm didn’t blink. It saw what mattered.

When You Can’t Trust Your Own Eyes…

The backlash came fast: “Why not Jokić? He wins everything!” But winning everything isn’t always the same as leading your team through fire.

Jokić is elite—he belongs in every conversation—but so does Embiid if you measure leadership by volume under duress,

Not all stars carry their teams equally—and the data doesn’t excuse sentimentality when results say otherwise.