Is Waga Worth $27M? My Data-Driven Take on a Hot NBA Contract Debate

The $27M Question

I’ve spent years building models to predict player value using advanced stats. So when someone claims Waga is worth $27 million, I didn’t just nod—I pulled up the numbers.

Spoiler: They don’t match.

What Does the Data Say?

Let’s cut through the noise. I ran his latest season metrics against full league averages:

• ePM (Estimated Points Added): 216 → Bottom 200 in NBA
• BPM (Box Plus/Minus): 227 → Worse than average
• DPM (Defensive Points Added): 283 → Among worst defenders
• On/Off Court Impact: +338 → Yes, that’s positive, but barely above zero and highly volatile.

These aren’t just bad numbers—they’re systematically below league median across every major efficiency metric.

The Salary Paradox

Now here’s where it gets fun: Waga’s salary sits at #54 in the league. You’re paying top-tier money for a player whose impact is in the basement.

It’s like hiring someone to run your business based on their LinkedIn profile while ignoring actual sales figures. In finance, we call that risk arbitrage. In basketball? It’s called overpaying for hype.

Why This Matters Beyond One Player

This isn’t about Waga alone—it’s about how teams evaluate talent. We’re seeing more contracts awarded not to performance but perception: style points, social media reach, locker room vibes.

I get it. I played pickup games in LA with guys who could dunk through rain clouds — but that doesn’t mean they’d survive an eight-game playoff series.

Moneyball taught us that outliers exist—but not because of charisma. They exist because of data gaps.

My Take: Value Isn’t Built on Hype

As someone raised on analytics but still lacing up sneakers at my local court every Saturday night, I’ll say this quietly: You don’t need to be good at basketball to be valued by it—but you do need to be good if you’re getting paid millions.

Waga might have swagger. He might have memes. But real value? That comes from consistency under pressure—not hashtags after a highlight reel.

So yes—$27M for this stat line? It makes as much sense as betting on rain during drought season.