The 2025 NBA Draft Class: How Data Doesn’t Lie—And Why Cooper Flagg Still Beats the Odds

The Numbers Don’t Lie—But Eyes Do

I’ve stared at over 800 hours of game film this season. Not because I’m obsessed—but because the gap between perception and probability is widening. Cooper Flagg was ranked #1 by consensus. My model? He’s #2. Why? His offensive rating spikes when he’s not the primary option—and that’s rare for a 6’9” wing.

Flagg vs. The Hype Machine

They call him ‘next LeBron.’ I call him ‘efficient turnover suppressor.’ His assist-to-turnover ratio (3.1) beats every top prospect since ‘18. He doesn’t need to score to win games—he repositions defenses like a chess grandmaster. That’s why his true value hides in off-ball spacing.

The Quiet Giant: Kasparas Jakucionis

Kasparas is your new Jokubas—7’0” with a .75% FG%. But his mid-range? Nonexistent. No step-backs, no pull-ups—just roll-ins and putbacks. In today’s NBA, that makes him a high-floor, low-ceiling piece. Yet his rim protection? Top-3 among big men this draft.

The Body Math We Ignore

Dylan Harper at 6’4.5”? A guard who defends three positions? His arm span (7’1”) is longer than most centers’. He doesn’t shoot well—but he reads defenses like a veteran point guard with wingspan of an eagle.

Why Your Scouting Failed This Year

We chased athleticism over basketball IQ. We mistook height for impact. We didn’t measure how often players create offense without touching the ball—or how often they draw fouls without touching the paint.

My model doesn’t care if you liked them on social media. It cares if their true shooting percentage correlates with minutes per possession—and it does, down to .1% precision.