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The Draft That Got Away: How a Bayesian Model Predicted the Spurs’ Pick—and Why Nobody Believed It
As a data scientist who grew up on Brooklyn’s concrete courts, I saw the Spurs’ lottery win not as luck—but as a posterior probability emerging from 18,000 simulated drafts. This isn’t about fortune; it’s about underestimating the signal. I ran the numbers. The model said ‘yes.’ The front office said ‘no.’ Here’s what the algorithms knew that human intuition didn’t.
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nba draft lottery
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5 days ago