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Why Does Kessler’s 97% Win Model Lose to Luck? A Data Scientist’s Take on NBA’s Hidden Biases

Why Does Kessler’s 97% Win Model Lose to Luck? A Data Scientist’s Take on NBA’s Hidden Biases

I’ve spent years decoding NBA trades through statistical lenses—seeing how a 97% win model can still fail when human intuition, not data, drives decisions. This isn’t about luck. It’s about the silent biases buried in front-office spreadsheets. I grew up on Chicago’s back courts where analytics meets alley-oop poetry. Here, the real edge isn’t in the shot—it’s in who gets ignored.
Lakers Hub
nba analytics
data science in sports
•3 weeks ago
Why Does a 97% Win Model Lose to Luck? The Hidden Math Behind NBA’s Silent Edge

Why Does a 97% Win Model Lose to Luck? The Hidden Math Behind NBA’s Silent Edge

As a Chicago-born data scientist raised on jazz and midnight pick-and-roll, I’ve watched how predictive models—built on cold logic and clean data—still fall short against the chaotic rhythm of human intuition. This isn’t about luck. It’s about unreadable variables: fatigue in defensive schemes, the unquantified grit of a guard’s last step, the silent weight of a coach’s decision. Here, the algorithm doesn’t see what the eye does.
Spurs Hub
data science in sports
nba predictive modeling
•3 weeks ago
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