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3 data signals that revealed the truth behind tonight’s underdog win — and why I stopped believing in narratives

3 data signals that revealed the truth behind tonight’s underdog win — and why I stopped believing in narratives

As a data scientist raised on Brooklyn’s concrete courts and Bayesian priors, I used to chase the myth that intuition drives sports. But after analyzing 12 seasons of micro-samples from undervalued leagues, I realized: the real signal isn’t who scores — it’s who models their silence. This isn’t about talent. It’s about entropy in the algorithm. I don’t trust hype. I trust posterior probabilities.
Thunder Zone
bayesian sports modeling
data-driven decision
•3 weeks ago
When xG Meets Fan Bias: How Bayesian Math Exposed the Illusion of Football Intuition

When xG Meets Fan Bias: How Bayesian Math Exposed the Illusion of Football Intuition

As a data witch from East London, I’ve spent years decoding sports myths with Python and Bayes’ theorem. This piece dismantles the fan-driven belief that intuition beats stats—using real xG models to show why ‘gut feelings’ in football and basketball consistently fail under pressure. No magic spells—just probability.
Warriors Zone
nba analytics
premier league xg
•1 month ago
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