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Why 76% of NBA Draft Picks Fail: A Data-Driven Portrait of Elite Prospects

Why 76% of NBA Draft Picks Fail: A Data-Driven Portrait of Elite Prospects

As a Chicago-born data scientist who modeled NBA draft outcomes with Bayesian frameworks, I’ve seen the gap between projection and reality. This piece dissects the top 15 prospects using empirical templates—not hype—revealing why most high-upside players never reach their ceiling. It’s not about potential. It’s about probability distributions in motion.
Rocket Zone
basketball analytics
nba draft analysis
•1 month ago
When AI Outsmarts God’s Hand: The Quiet Poetry of NBA Defensive Forecasts

When AI Outsmarts God’s Hand: The Quiet Poetry of NBA Defensive Forecasts

I watched the screen at 2 a.m.—not as a fan, but as someone who built models to decode silence in the data stream. This isn’t about luck. It’s about rhythm: how San Antonio’s defense, stripped bare by algorithms, sings more truth than any hype. My code doesn’t shout. It breathes. And what it reveals? A quiet revolution in how we trust outcome—not because it’s loud, but because it’s right.
Spurs Hub
nba analytics
bayesian forecasting
•1 month ago
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