Should the 14th Pick Prioritize a 3-Point Four or a Five? The Silent Prophet of Stats Weighs the NBA's Hidden Edge

The Myth of Size

I don’t trust height alone. Not since ’09, when the league shifted from twin towers to spread offenses. A 203cm five who can’t shoot is a liability—not an asset. The data doesn’t lie: teams that cling to traditional frontcourts lose pace to those who deploy three-point threats from the four spot.

The Silent Math of Space

My father once told me: ‘Basketball is geometry at midnight.’ Look at the court—every inch matters. From Golden State to Oklahoma City, every roster now demands a wing with range over bulk. Jalen Green (6’8”) isn’t just tall—he’s a probability multiplier. He doesn’t need to be center; he needs to be space.

The Calibrated Edge

The Warriors’ last pick wasn’t about strength—it was about entropy reduction. You don’t draft a 7’0” center for post-ups anymore; you draft a shooter who pulls defenders into isolation—like Durant in ’22, like Vassell in ’23, like Banchero in ’24—all under 6’8”, all with >35% catch rate from beyond arc.

Why Not Five?

The five spot is dying—not because it’s weak—but because it’s static. Modern defenses collapse inward if you give them space to breathe. That’s why my models don’t predict height—they predict curvature.

Who Gets the Pick?

If you want win probabilities? You don’t chase muscle—you chase margin. The next All-Star isn’t born at 7’0”—he’s born at .45% three-point efficiency and .92 free throw accuracy. I’ve seen this before—the silent prophet chants probabilities while the world sleeps.