10th Pick Worth Considering? Cedric Coward’s Rise from D-III to NBA Star Potential

The Data Doesn’t Lie

I’ve spent eight years building predictive models for NBA draft outcomes—so when a player breaks out in under 200 minutes, it grabs my attention. That’s exactly what happened with Cedric Coward. At 6’6” with a 7’2” wingspan and hands like a catcher’s mitt, he already fits the modern NBA prototype: versatile wing with length, mobility, and shot-making.

His numbers? Unreal for limited action. A 55.7% true shooting percentage over just six games? That’s elite. And with a +9.3 net rating while playing heavy minutes? That suggests impact beyond stats.

From D-III to D-I: A Blueprint of Resilience

Coward didn’t start at power-conference schools—he began at Willamette University (D-III), where he averaged 19.4 points and 12 rebounds as a freshman. Not bad for someone who didn’t even play varsity until high school.

Then he transferred to Eastern Washington (D-I), then to Washington State—each move increasing his offensive role. But here’s the kicker: he only played six games this season before a shoulder injury ended his campaign.

Yet in those six games? He scored at will off the dribble, hit threes on catch-and-shoots and off screens, defended multiple positions—and all while maintaining an efficiency that left analysts stunned.

The Real Question: Can He Hold the Ball?

Most scouts see him as a pure three-and-D wing—the kind teams love for spacing and switching on defense. And yes: his defensive ratings are low (top 14% of players), but remember—he played limited minutes against elite competition.

The real uncertainty lies in ball-handling depth: only ~8% of possessions came via isolation or pick-and-roll in college—but when he did handle it, he showed surprising poise.

This is where data helps us spot patterns other eyes miss. His turnover rate was only one per game despite high usage (22%). That tells me confidence isn’t fake—it’s earned through repetition across levels.

Why This Isn’t Just Wishful Thinking

Look at his career arc: D-III → D-I → Power Conference → Injury-ridden final year → still produces top-tier metrics.

That’s not luck—that’s resilience built into every layer of development. I’ve modeled similar trajectories before; they tend to peak late because they’re not rushed into roles too soon.

If you’re drafting near the top ten looking for value with floor-and-ceiling potential? Coward checks more boxes than most players drafted five picks higher.

Final Verdict: High Ceiling If You Believe in Growth

The model says yes—with caveats:

• Yes if you believe in growth mindset coaching;
• Yes if you value athletic upside over polished polish;
• Yes if you’re okay betting on effort over instinct. But no if you want immediate ready-made starters. Still… that rare blend of size, shooting touch, and tenacity makes him worth drafting somewhere between #8–#13—especially if your team values long-term development over short-term fixes.