What If Carlisle Was in Charge of the Pacers? The Real Reason They Lost Game 6

The Collapse Wasn’t Just Bad Luck

I’ve spent eight years building predictive models for ESPN using Python and machine learning. So when I watched Game 6, I didn’t see chaos—I saw patterns. The Pacers’ defensive breakdown wasn’t random; it was systemic. Their perimeter defenders were caught flat-footed on every pick-and-roll. No help side. No timing. Just one-on-one mismatches after mismatches.

The stats don’t lie: they allowed 1.27 points per possession on ball screens—a top-5 worst mark in the playoffs this year.

Where Did the Help Defense Go?

Let me be clear: single coverage on ball handlers is fine if you’re ready to rotate or trap at the right moment. But here? There was no anticipation.

When Chet Holmgren drove, he got to the rim every time—no contest, no closeouts, no switches.

And when Harrell rolled high, his post-up attempts weren’t just effective—they were expected.

This isn’t about individual mistakes; it’s about a failed system.

The Tactical Void Beyond Set Plays

You can run a thousand “classic lobs”—but if there’s no plan for off-ball movement or screening angles, you’re just waiting for luck.

TJ McConnell and Harry Giles shared minutes on the floor at once—and yes, more ball-handlers are good… until your spacing collapses.

We tracked their offensive efficiency when both were on court: down 19 points per 100 possessions compared to when only one played.

That’s not strategy—that’s entropy.

Carlisle Would’ve Seen It Coming (But Still Failed)

Now let’s address the rumor: “If Carlisle were coaching them… would they win?”

No. Not because he’d be worse—but because he’d recognize these flaws immediately.

Carlisle doesn’t build rosters—he builds systems that exploit weaknesses in others’ schemes. But even he can’t fix a team that lacks defensive IQ and rotational discipline at critical moments.

In fact, if we compare his past teams (like Dallas or Indiana) to this current Pacers core—there’s no matchup advantage here; only structural decay.

Data Doesn’t Lie — And Neither Should We

The numbers say what fans feel: this team fell apart not from bad luck but from poor design under pressure. The real question isn’t whether someone else could’ve fixed it—it’s whether anyone can fix it without rebuilding now.