Can a 6'7" Power Forward Evolve Into a Swing Shooting Wing? Data-Driven Insights from a Chicago Analyst

The Question Nobody Asks

I’ve spent five years mapping player evolution through Python models—tracking shot selection, defensive coverage, and spacing efficiency. When I saw ‘老八’—6’7”, elite athleticism—I didn’t ask if he could ‘swing’. I asked: Could he should? The difference between hope and probability is the core of my work.

The Myth of Physical Potential

His height gives him mismatched tools for the wing position. Traditional scouting says he’s too bulky to space out on the perimeter. But NBA analytics doesn’t care about tradition—it cares about shot creation efficiency. His release angle? His footwork under pressure? These aren’t instincts—they’re data points.

The Swing-Shooting Threshold

A true swing wing needs three things: catch-and-release rhythm, off-dribble creation, and floor spacing that forces defenders to overcommit. ‘老八’ has two out of three. His handle is crisp; his foot speed is elite. But his release point is high—too high—for consistent pull from the wing spot.

Probability Over Passion

We romanticize the ‘what if’. I optimize for ‘what is’. He can become something—but only if his jump trajectory drops 8 degrees toward the elbow. That’s not magic—it’s geometry.

Closing Thought

If you’re betting on evolution—not potential—you’re betting on data, not dreams. Ask yourself: What does the model see before your eyes?